These are two bad teams, a situation where I'd typically like the points. But I think Miami has a sneaky good home-field advantage, so much so that these teams need to be even if the line is 3.5. But Ryan Tannehill is a much better QB at this stage than Josh Allen, especially with the rookie hitting the road. My power ratings line says this should be Miami -7, as I think they're closer to the middle of the pack with their starting QB back than to the bottom of the league, which is where Buffalo is.

The Bills have beaten Miami on their of their last five visits down there. Buffalo's defense is good and Ryan Tannehill is an average QB. I think Buffalo will be able to run the ball; I don't like Miami's linebackers at all.