I think the Patriots are going to be conservative offensively with Tom Brady questionable to play due to a knee issue and an illness, and the Jets have been held to 17 points or less in all but three of their games this year. This matchup has stayed under 47 in four straight games in New Jersey, and with Brady limited and Josh McCown starting for the Jets, I don't expect anything different here.

The Patriots haven't covered against the Jets on the road since 2012, and that five-game stretch of covers includes three with Todd Bowles at the helm. Considering Tom Brady is at less than 100 percent after missing practice Friday, I can't see the Patriots turning around that trend this week. Expect a close, lower-scoring game with both teams having two weeks to prepare for this one, but expect the Jets to have the motivation edge. This is their biggest game of the season, while the Patriots are just looking to make it to the playoffs healthy.

Spotting a home team double-digit points is usually a recipe for disaster. Sometimes, recipes are to be ignored, as any cook of Thanksgiving meals can attest. The Patriots are steamed from a beatdown by Tennessee and will emerge from a bye week with pent-up emotion. The Jets historically play the Pats tough, with five consecutive covers in New York. With 43 points in the past four games, however, they cannot keep pace. The return of TE Rob Gronkowski (back) from an injury layoff is worth points alone.