The combination of Kirk Cousins's primetime struggles, Minnesota's beat-up offensive line, Green Bay's desperation and, well, Aaron Rodgers has me forgetting about the Packers' depleted defense and siding with the road team in this one. It does give me pause how dominant Minnesota can be at home in big games, but this is do-or-die for Green Bay, and the Packers usually come through in such circumstances. Plus, I'm getting the hook. Let's put a positive spin on a crappy day.

This line is saying the teams are even and I don't believe that's the case. The Vikings have a massive homefield advantage -- they're 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 home games -- and Green Bay's defensive injuries give them a chance to break out offensively. The Packers are winless on the road and dealing with distractions about their coach's future. Lay it.

The Vikings have been the better team this year, and they're certainly the healthier team after Jimmy Graham and Mike Daniels joined the walking wounded of key Packers players. The Vikings also have a top-tier home-field advantage, which I have at four points. So I think this line needs to be closer to Vikings -6, making this incredible value for us. Yes, Kirk Cousins struggles in primetime, and Aaron Rodgers is unquestionably a better QB. But the Vikings have an elite, well-rounded defense that can carry them to the win in this matchup at home.

The Packers offense has been a different unit on the road compared to at home. In Green Bay the Packers are scoring 27.8 points per game. On the road they're scoring 21.6 points per game. Minnesota has only scored 20.8 points per game at home, and its defense played well last week. In this divisional matchup I expect the points will be hard to come by.

Green Bay is winless on the road. The Vikings' defense shut down the Bears in the second half, and Minnesota could have won the game if Kirk Cousins hadn't blown it. The Packers' defense is really bad and won't put Cousins under duress. Lay the points.