Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
It's truly nutty how equal statistically these teams are through 10 weeks. The Chiefs defense has looked better the last few games, but when you consider it played the Cardinals, Browns, Broncos and Bengals, perhaps it is getting a tad too much respect. Meanwhile, the Rams have been getting a lot of grief for their defensive performance, but they just played the Seahawks, Saints and Packers. So let's throw that difference out the window. In a game like this, time of possession is critical, and the Rams are seventh in the NFL in that category, whereas the Chiefs are 24th. That may signal to you that KC needs less time to score, and that's true, but it also means it gives the ball back quicker. There's also red zone scoring to consider. The Chiefs are sixth, converting 71 percent of their trips into TDs, whereas the Rams are 18th at 57 percent. Not great. LA's rushing edge is notable, as is the fact that it has never beaten or covered against KC this century (0-5). So ... what do we do? In this case, we go against the public, against the sharps, against the trends and go with our gut ... and also the team that can play keep away late with a beast running back and nails kicker ... at home.
The Rams have covered just once in their past seven games. Kansas City is getting a key weapon back in Sammy Watkins. This is going to be a close, highly-entertaining shootout. Grab the points.
With this game being moved back to Los Angeles from Mexico City, we should see both offenses at their best, which should make for an exciting back-and-forth game. To be quite honest, both teams are built similarly with tremendous tailbacks, excellent receiving options and QBs that can make all of the throws. On paper, the Rams clearly have the better defense, but in reality, especially over the last few weeks, the Chiefs defense statistically has fared better. In my opinion, one extra stop there is going to be enough to get under that half point in this line.
The Rams defense was a strength early and helped contribute to the Rams No. 1 team rating, but it's allowed 27, 45 and 31 points the last three weeks. The Chiefs don't need much of a breakdown by opponents to score a bunch quickly. The Chiefs also don't play any defense, especially on the road allowing 30 ppg and 457 ypg. I like the Over, but I'll take the Chiefs with all the points. This should be one of those games where the last possession wins.
Playing this game in Los Angeles instead of Mexico City will keep the game fast and make the Over much more likely. The big buy for the Over here is the Rams defense which was a strength early and helped contribute to the Rams No. 1 rating, but it's allowed 27, 45 and 31 points the last three weeks. The Chiefs don't need much of a breakdown by opponents to score a bunch quickly. The Chiefs also don't play any defense, especially on the road allowing 30 ppg and 457 ypg. Over is the top play.
The Rams' secondary is not playing well and they're going to get lit up by this K.C. passing game. Plus the Rams lost one of their top receivers, and the Chiefs are getting healthier on defense. The Rams have been a lousy favorite ATS; they've covered one of their last seven games overall. Grab the points.
The Chiefs are the best team in the league per DVOA, which has a sizable gap between them and the second-ranked Rams. And they've had a lot of success on the road under Andy Reid, posting an NFL-best 32-16 ATS in road games since 2013 when Reid took over. The Rams don't have a particularly strong home-field advantage, and I don't see any reason this line should be more than three points, especially since the Rams have had trouble covering over their last seven games (1-6 ATS).
This super-sized total stands to be the largest in 32 seasons. Ignore the jaw-dropping fact that the teams are averaging nearly 69 points combined. It is conceivable that the leading one milks some clock late in the game. The Chiefs, deplorable defensively in September, have allowed just 17.5 ppg in the past four. Breathe deeply and check the Under box.