Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
A must-win game for the Jaguars. I don’t think there is a big difference in talent between the two teams. Pittsburgh leads the AFC North by a game and a half for the first time this year. Time for a letdown. The general public will be all over Pittsburgh and the line should go to -6 and possibly -6.5.
It is understandable to like the Jags in this spot. After all, the return of Leonard Fournette injected some life into Jacksonville's offense last week ... in a game it ultimately lost at Indianapolis. The Steelers have been piling up wins as of late, which inflated this line early in the week. It is still probably a full point too high -- and I'm personally going to wait or buy the half point to get it at -4 -- but this is a revenge spot for a Pittsburgh team that has rallied around its best player ditching his teammates not only before the year began but before the trade deadline, too. The Steelers have a chance for another double-digit victory in this one if the Jags get behind early. Without a defensive score or major special teams surprise, this should cover.
The Jaguars have not lived up to expectations this season but they did beat Pittsburgh twice last season. In Pittsburgh. Once in the playoffs. Plus the return of Leonard Fournette does a lot for the Jags offense, so to see them getting nearly a TD at home here is too much value to pass on.
With Steelers winning five straight and Jaguars losing five straight, there's going to be some value in this line as the public keeps adjusting their perceptions of each team. But how can the Steelers be six-point road favorites against a team that beat them twice last year? They'll be coming into this game looking for revenge, sure, but the Jags know they have what it takes to beat this team, and they're certain to feel disrespected by the expectations that they're going to get blown out here. They find a way to keep it closer to the lookahead line of Steelers -3.