Houston has been very good during its six-game winning streak. Deshaun Watson has been 2.5 points better than the average NFL quarterback and the defense has allowed just 76 points in its last five games. The Texans' defense is No. 5 in points per play allowed and No. 5 in yards per play. Washington's defense is No. 22 in yards per play allowed and quarterback Alex Smith is a half-point below the average NFL QB.

Simply put, the Texans are the better team in this game. Houston's offensive talent far surpasses what Washington brings to the table, and its stellar defensive front should give the hosts fits all day, especially as they try to defend the Texans with a banged-up offensive line. Neither team has racked up a "good" win over the last four weeks, but Houston's have been more impressive as it has won six straight since that confounding 0-3 start to the season. The Texans are also coming off a bye. Say no more. The two models I reference surprisingly disagree on this outcome, but I personally have Houston as a six-point road favorite.

I was so ready to play the Texans this week on a six-game win streak, but a few things pulled me back that led me to believe the Under is the best play as both squads have gone 6-3 to the Under. When the Redskins are in this spot this season favored by 1 to being +3.5 they're 6-1 ATS and they're 5-1 ATS as a dog and 3-0 as a home dog. But both these teams have stayed Under in four of their last five due to great defense. Under is the play.

Washington somehow beat Tampa Bay despite an injury-torn offensive line. Three starters already were out before OT Gerson Christian (knee) was scratched for the season. The Redskins got away with it against the Bucs but cannot count on a sequel versus Houston’s defense, which is tied for fourth in yards yielded per snap. The Texans, on the other hand, are healed after a beneficial bye week. They also have won six in a row straight-up.

This line reflects that Washington has become a paper tiger, winning games they have no business hanging around in, like against the Bucs last week. They can't throw the ball effectively, with less than 180 passing yards in four of their last five, and their offensive line is decimated by injuries. That's a big deal against a talented Houston team that knows how to rush the passer. Houston also has the best run defense per DVOA in the entire league. Washington's offense struggles as Houston wins an easy one.

The Redskins are severely banged-up on the offensive line. Tampa Bay could not take advantage last week, but Houston will. Back the rested Texans to win their seventh straight -- and cover.

The Houston Texans are coming off of a bye and are heading to Washington where the Redskins got back on the winning track last week. There is still something a bit off about the Redskins offensive attack. Alex Smith has been steady, but not spectacular. When you add in a healthy Texans defense that features premier pass rushers like JJ Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercelius, it could prove to be a huge problem for Washington on Sunday. Oh by the way, Deshaun Watson and that Texans passing game should have success against the back seven of the Redskins.

Houston's defense is really good, the Texans are coming off a bye and Washington is really beat-up, especially on the offensive line. Washington gave up 501 yards to the Buccaneers last week. The Redskins were fortunate with all the turnovers. Deshaun Watson is playing great and I think Houston wins its seventh straight. Lay the points.

If the Texans were to undergo x-rays right now doctors would discover a horseshoe. I'm not saying they're a bad team, but they certainly aren't so much better than this Redskins team that they should be a field goal favorite against them in DC.