I'm by far getting the worst line off the week here by waiting -- should've grabbed this at 5 on Saturday -- but it does not give me too much pause. The Saints are indeed in a letdown spot here after huge tight wins, but they are the cream of the crop in the NFL -- one of the top five teams in the league. Still without AJ Green, the Bengals just don't have the weapons to keep up with the Saints for four quarters. Even in their wins, they're not consistent for four quarters. Just look at the Miami and Tampa Bay games. Between them? Cincinnati lost by 35 at Kansas City and by a full touchdown hosting Pittsburgh. Tyler Boyd would need to explode for the Bengals to have a chance here, but I think the Saints can keep him in check and get the W by a touchdown.

This is a terrible spot for the Saints, going on the road after three emotional wins in a row to face a team coming off a bye. But they need to keep winning if they want homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. A.J. Green's absence, combined with the Bengals' horrific defense, means I'm on the Saints to cover their seventh straight overall and improve to 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games. Lay it.

Cincinnati at home with this many points is customarily a sure-fire play — no questions asks. This is different. The Bengals have granted 500-plus yards in two straight games, during which time New Orleans’ has pasted a combined 75 points on the Vikings and Rams. Then there are the WRs. Cincy’s A.J. Green (toe) is out, and the drop-off to the next guys is steep. Saints newbie Dez Bryant may not play, though it seems likely he will get some snaps. The Bengals’ beleaguered defense must pay heed to Bryant, even as a decoy.

Cincinnati is missing its top receiver, that’s going to hurt them. New Orleans right now is so well-balanced. I don’t think Cincinnati’s defense is that bad, but I don’t think they can stop the Saints the way they’re playing. They’ve been good on the road, too. They’re just on a roll, and Brees has been phenomenal. He’s not making mistakes. And Andy Dalton, he’ll make mistakes.

The Saints' defense, particularly the back seven, has been the story over the last two weeks. It has done a solid job in coverage and forcing turnovers. The Bengals, coming off of a bye, will be playing shorthanded at wide receiver with A.J. Green scheduled to miss a few weeks with a foot injury. While Tyler Boyd is good, he's the only true threat as we still don't know what type of impact John Ross can have or will have on this offense. This makes the Bengals a bit easier to defend, which will result in the Saints' offense getting extra possessions. Lay the points with the Saints.

My trusty simulations indicate the Saints are seriously devalued going into their game against the Bengals. Not only has New Orleans won seven in a row straight-up, it also has covered its previous six -- three of them by double digits. Drew Brees is a legitimate MVP candidate and the Rams, who boast one of the top defenses in the league, were torched for 45 points and nearly 500 yards. With the AFC North title becoming a pipe dream, the Bengals will likely struggle containing New Orleans, who covers the spread 60 percent of the time by an average of nine points.