Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The Falcons have a bad defense capable of giving up a ton of points, but the Browns haven't been lighting up the scoreboard this season. I can see their No. 2-ranked pass DVOA giving the Falcons a bit of trouble, and they should be looking to make this a lower-scoring game where they have a better chance of getting out with a win. This game should be in the 30s, and it'll be the first such game Atlanta has played since 2014. Expect an uglier game that doesn't cross the 50-point plateau.
After the steam move on the Falcons, I'm going to hop in and take the other side. Atlanta brings a great passing offense into this game, but Cleveland can counter with an excellent pass defense. And these teams are below average at everything else on offense and defense. If Cleveland can get a few stops, which they couldn't against a historically great Chiefs offense, they could turn this into an ugly 25-22 type of game. I think that's more likely than a second straight Atlanta rout on the road, and I can absolutely see a scenario where the Browns D is at their best and Cleveland wins outright.
Atlanta right now is really playing well, Matt Ryan is playing the way he did when he was MVP, the just made a big addition on defense, which is getting healthy anyway. They’re going to put up points against Cleveland, and I don’t think they can keep up with them.
This is a spot where I believe the Falcons are being a bit overvalued coming off a big win against Washington, and the Browns are being undervalued following a loss to possibly the best team in the NFL.
It took a while for Atlanta offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to find his footing. In his second season, Sark has the unit operating on all cylinders. The Falcons have scored in the 30s five of their last seven games. Conversely, Cleveland has let foes creep into the 30s four of the last six. The Browns’ defense is weakened further with linebacker Christian Kirksey (hamstring) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (concussion) moving to injured reserve. The public, which has caused a line shift from 2.5, appears dead-on here.