Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Expert Picks
Yes it's a monster spread, but the punchless Bills' offense has little chance of keeping up with the Patriots, barring a slew of turnovers. New England won the last three meetings by 21, 20 and 16 points. And this is arguably the worst version of the Bills among those four matchups. Rob Gronkowski is expected to play after sitting out last week. Lay it.
The Patriots have won and covered the past three meetings with the Bills. The Patriots have allowed 29 ppg in three road games so far, going 1-2 SU and ATS. The Bills' offense figures to be horrendous with Derek Anderson at quarterback. The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against losing squads, and they've scored 38 points or more during their four-game win streak. This is a big number to lay and I certainly don't want the Bills, but the Over looks like a strong play Monday.
Buffalo can be a tough place for opposing teams, but not for New England, which is 15-5-1 against the spread the last 21 years playing in upstate New York. Buffalo's offense is struggling big-time while New England's O is surging, averaging more than 39 ppg the last four weeks. The Bills' defense, along with a forecast calling for wind and cold, could slow Tom Brady to some extent, but Buffalo's offense won't be able to keep up. Back the Pats.
You think the Bills have nothing on offense, but that understates the problem. In fact, they're the worst offense Football Outsiders has ever measured through seven games. The Patriots should cruise to a win but have no need to run up the score on what should be a cold, rainy night. Bill Belichick prioritizes his players' health in this matchup and gets conservative the second half to finish with no more than 34 points. The Bills won't get to 10 themselves, so I like the Under to cash in this one.
You're never going to be comfortable betting on Buffalo, particularly when it's playing the Patriots. Still, a two-touchdown spread is just a bit too much. Let's not forget that the last time Buffalo was this large a dog it went on the road and beat Minnesota.
A home team on Monday night receiving two touchdowns? Say no more, even with Derek Anderson at quarterback for the Bills and RB LeSean McCoy (concussion) iffy. The Bills boast the league’s fourth-ranked defense overall and in passing, which could prevent Tom Brady from busting loose. Starting Patriots running back Sony Michel (ankle) might sit this one out. TE Rob Gronkowski (back), who bypassed last Sunday’s game, has recovered, but why use him extensively against a weak foe? Buffalo, which was saddled with five road games in the first seven weeks, will savor playing at home — as will its loyal fans at Buffalo’s first Monday nighter in a decade.