Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Seattle comes off a bye following a win against the lowly Raiders in London while the Lions have won two straight, 32-21 at Miami last week and 31-23 at home against the Packers the week before. Detroit has its offense clicking right now and I don't see Seattle hanging with them. And the spread suggests that both teams are equal on a neutral field and that's not the case. Detroit is the play.
Seattle has won four of last five off the bye, scoring 24 points or more in all five games. They needed the break, as they'll come out of the bye much healthier. I continue to think the Lions are overrated, with their offense ranking 15th in DVOA and their defense 30th. They might have to settle for FGs here, with Seattle fifth in points per drive allowed and owning the No. 4 DVOA defense. Also think the Seahawks are underrated, only playing two home games to date but still managing a 3-3 record. I think worst case we get a push here.
The Seahawks are coming off of a bye and went into that off week playing some good football, especially defensively. We know their ground game has been gaining traction, as has the Lions running game. Stacking back-to-back solid performances on the ground is going to be the challenge for Detroit as the Lions have to show a strong commitment to being a balanced team. The Seahawks do a great job of making that decision for you, and coming off of a victory, and an extra week of preparation, I like the Seahawks' chances.
The Lions have covered five straight games, but the Seahawks have been just as impressive in that stretch. My advanced computer simulations give an overall edge to Seattle to win straight-up, but the value lies in the points. Take the Seahawks plus the points on the road.