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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
The Browns have played well on the road this season, dropping three-point decisions at New Orleans and Oakland. Look for Baker Mayfield to bounce back against a shoddy Tampa Bay defense, which won't have Gerald McCoy or Vinny Curry. Look for Cleveland to keep it close once again.
Here's what we know about the Buccaneers: no matter who is quarterbacking they bring it offensively and no matter who they play their defense is going to allow a bunch. Their average score this season is 28-34 which has made all five of their games get Over the total. With Baker Mayfield still prone to mistakes, the Bucs should have a couple short field scoring opportunities as well. Just the Over here.
The total has trickled up this week but not high enough. It’s no secret that Tampa Bay’s defense is rock-bottom, with an astonishingly high 77 percent completion rate allowed, and new coordinator Mark Duffner cannot fix it overnight. In recent seasons, the Bucs even allow rookie QBs to thrive, and Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield is the real deal. Injury absences on both sides are concentrated on the defenses -- notably LB Joe Schobert (hamstring), Cleveland’s top tackler, and Bucs S Jordan Whitehead (hamstring) -- and sunny, warm weather is conducive to a shootout.
The Bucs can't stop any pass offense, even one led by Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky. The Browns offense is coming off two tough matchups but should have much more success in this spot. Browns D is No. 3 in DVOA against the pass and No. 2 in points per drive, so I'm not completely sure Tampa will light up the scoreboard. The Bucs have also had an issue with turnovers, which has been a boon for the Browns defense. Throw in a poor home-field advantage for the Bucs and this is incredible value for us.
The Tampa Bay defense is abysmal. The Bucs have allowed 0.542 points per play this season, which ranks dead last in the NFL. For further context on that stat, the Raiders rank 31st in the NFL at 0.493 points per play. That's a large gap between the Bucs and the next-worst defense. A defense this bad is hard to trust as a favorite, whether at home or on the road.
From the looks of it, Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield seems to have hit a rookie wall. The good news is that the Bucs' defense could provide the best remedy for he and the Browns' offense to get back on track. Consequently, the Browns' defense has been a bit of a liability the last two weeks. I think what you saw in the second half from the Bucs' offense is more of what we're going to see moving forward and Jameis Winston is getting reacclimated to the offense. Despite their defensive questions, look for the Buccaneers to pull through in the end. Lay the points with the Bucs.