There must be a lot of belief here in Jameis Winston as a difference maker for the Bucs. I don't buy it. Is it a game-to-game improvement over Ryan Fitzpatrick? Perhaps. But let's not act like he's any good. The Falcons should probably be favored by a touchdown in this one, and I think Dan Quinn will have finally found some type of defensive answers back at home against an offense in Tampa Bay's that can be exploited for turnovers. I'm not saying the Falcons will suddenly dominate, but they should be able to contain Winston from going nuts. I trust Matt Ryan to do the damn thing on Sunday and get this win.

The Falcons will pull together at home and take advantage of the NFL's worst defense. Atlanta has beaten Tampa Bay three straight times, and the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

The Falcons' battered defense has given up 41, 37 and 43 points the past three weeks. Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson all will have big games. Take the points.

We're getting a lot of value here on the lookahead line, which had the Falcons favored by 6.5. This should be a shootout, and with the Falcons offense back at home, you can count on them to rebound nicely indoors after last week's dud. Atlanta has had to deal with versatile offenses like Pittsburgh, Cincy and New Orleans in recent weeks, but they don't have to respect the Bucs run game at all. That should be the difference in getting the cover, as I can't see Tampa Bay coming up with an answer on defense at all.

I'm not expecting Jameis Winston to have a crummy game as he had in last week's 48-10 loss at Chicago in his first start, but I don't think the Bucs will be able to keep up with the 1-4 Falcons. This is where the Falcons rise to who they really are and because of the Bucs' metrics from their first two amazing games, I get a super cheap price here. Falcons are the play.

I'm jumping on the Over here before it goes up, and I'd take it all the way to 60. These are the two worst defenses in football, and Atlanta isn't getting any healthier. The Bucs allowed six TDs to Mitchell Trubisky before their bye, and I doubt two weeks is long enough to fix their issues. The Over is a combined 8-1 in these two teams' games this year, with the only Under coming in the Falcons' Week 1 loss to the Eagles in Philly. Ride the trend and expect more fireworks here.