This total has dropped to the point where there's value on the Over. Both teams are coming off listless offensive performances and I expect enough of a bounceback to get this Over.

The Cowboys have been an Under machine lately with four of their five games staying Under this season contributing to a 12-2 Under run that began last season. The Cowboys offensive game plan is simple these days because they don't have a skilled receiver deep or a security blanket with Jason Witten always open over the middle. They've gone to their strength continually with their o-line and Ezekiel Elliott and chew time off the clock. Under is the top play here.

The Cowboys have one of the weakest home field advantages at Jerry-world, but even if I give them just 2-points for the edge, there's no way the Jaguars offense can convince me that they're 5-points better than Dallas and that's what Jags -3 on the road says. I look for the Cowboys to win the battle on the front line and their running game to control the clock and pace. Cowboys plus the points are the play.

The Cowboys are showing zero creativity on offense, and this should be a matchup where the Jaguars defense can feast. But Blake Bortles has been pretty bad on the road, continuing his ugly splits from last year. And the Dallas defense has done a solid job defensively this season, helping four of their five games go Under the total. I can see Jacksonville putting together a similar win as they did in Week 1 at the Giants when we saw a 20-15 final.

The Jaguars have a great defense and the Cowboys have no offense. I laid the points.

Blake Bortles has never been consistent, but he's played worse on the road than at home. This week Bortles and the Jags head to Dallas to take on a Cowboys defense that's been great against the run, and Leonard Fournette's likely to miss this game. Take the Cowboys at home with the points.

For the Jaguars, another week without workhorse running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) looms. Complicating the depth concerns is backup running back Corey Grant (foot) going on injured reserve. That leaves T.J. Yeldon to carry the load, which means a heavier burden on quarterback Blake Bortles. The Cowboys are getting bashed for their Sunday night loss, but there's no shame in losing to the Texans in overtime. The line shift from 2.5 is critical, providing a degree of cushion in case of another overtime game.