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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
This line was Miami -1 on the lookahead, and since Chicago didn't play last week, that means this huge swing is entirely based on what happened to the Dolphins last week. But I wouldn't count on fluky defensive TDs being the norm, even against a talented Chicago front, and Miami has a great defense and special teams of their own. Mitchell Trubisky blew out the Bucs, but he struggled on the road against a bad Arizona team before that. I think we get a game like that one here but the Dolphins pull out the win.
This line broke with Miami as the slightest of underdogs, which put this matchup in the “avoid” category, but has shifted to more than a field goal. That is significant for what is projected as a low-scoring encounter, with a total of 41.5. The Bears have not made hay out of recent bye weeks, going 0-4 ATS. The Dolphins have covered in all but one of their last five home games. Bears QB Mitch Trubisky lit it up in his last outing with a half-dozen TD throws, but the Dolphins lead the league in interceptions.
The Dolphins looked ragged the past two weeks in losses at New England and Cincinnati, but let's not forget them starting 3-0 and covering all three. Somewhere in the past two weeks, coupled with the Bears winning their last three, the rating of these two teams have shifted dramatically and I disagree. I still have Miami a half point better meaning they should be at least a -1.5 home favorite.
The Bears defense is playing better and better as the season rolls along, and they should feast on a Dolphins offense that has scored just two TDs in its last two games. The Dolphins defense is also playing well, allowing an average of just two TDs over five games this year. I don't expect the Bears offense to be as dynamic here as they looked against the Bucs' terrible defense. This should be a game played in the teens, so I like the Under.
Miami will get crushed again this week. The Bears' elite defense will stop Miami. Ryan Tannehill is not playing well right now, turning the ball over in critical situations. And Chicago should be able to run on the Dolphins. Lay the points.