The spread is suggesting that the Bengals are all of a sudden 3.5 points better on a neutral field than Miami and that's just not the case. I actually have Miami a half-point better which means anything over +3 is an automatic play. I researched and delayed to see if I was missing something, but I didn't. The Dolphins got blown out at New England in their last game and that's what is standing out to most. Huge overlay with a live underdog Sunday.

The Dolphins had been playing well on defense until getting walloped in New England, a spot they typically have trouble with. They were 6.5-point underdogs in that game; do we think the Bengals are in the same ballpark as the Patriots? The Cincy offense has rolled to date, but they lose a key weapon with Tyler Eifert out for the year. The Dolphins have a league-best nine interceptions this year, and Andy Dalton has thrown six in four games. One key pick could be the difference in getting this cover, as I think this line should be closer to CIN -3.

Six is a key number in today's NFL, and with the line move I'm jumping on the Bengals. They've covered seven straight against AFC teams, while the Dolphins typically struggle on the road. The Bengals have been horrific on third down defensively, but Vontaze Burfict's return should help in that area. Lay it.

A 3-0 start for the Dolphins might have been a mirage. Miami must carry on without two starting offensive linemen, LG Josh Sutton (rotator cuff) and C Daniel Kilgore (triceps), while WR DaVante Parker has been shelved for two games with a quad injury that caught his coach and QB by surprise. Cincinnati will unleash LB Vontaze Burfict, back from a four-game suspension. The Dolphins are on a 1-6 ATS road slide, almost a mirror image of the Bengals’ home ATS mini-streak of 4-1.

The Bengals are getting a key defensive presence back with Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension this week, and New England just put on tape the script for shutting down the Dolphins offense. That'll help the Under cash for the first time this season in a Bengals game. If Joe Mixon is back, I can see the Bengals chewing up the clock more and avoiding potential turnovers against the Dolphins' talented secondary.

I like to bet teams a week after they were blown out. There tends to be a public overreaction, and I believe we have a good example here. Miami lost in New England 38-7 last week, while Cincinnati went on the road and beat Atlanta 37-36 in a shootout. This line opened with Cincinnati as a 5.5-point favorite and then quickly moved to 6.5-points. I think 5.5 points were a bit too much, and the extra point is just too much value to pass up.

Miami was a bad team that got to 3-0 by beating bad teams. Now they're playing good teams. Cincinnati is better than New England. Andy Dalton is playing as well as he ever has. While Tyler Eifert's injury hurts, it won't matter in this matchup. The Bengals will be all over Ryan Tannehill, who struggles against good teams. Miami is on the road for the second week in a row and will take another double-digit loss.