There's only one Jalen Ramsey on the Jags defense despite the unit being fantastic as a whole. With Sammy Watkins active and seemingly recovered from his hamstring injury, Patrick Mahomes now has his full complement of weapons to go up against a stingy D. The biggest hiccup here will be Kansas City's defense as Jacksonville is not awful offensively and T.J. Yeldon should get his. I just don't know if the Jags will stop the Chiefs enough to allow its own offense to catch up and cover a field goal spread. Plus, if KC is behind late, well, we all saw what happened last week on the road in Denver. Give me the home team feeling itself over the one that played a 9-6 game against Tennessee two weeks ago.

The No. 1 defense is always supposed to be given the edge against the No. 1 scoring offense when hooking up, but that holds much more weight in December or the playoffs. It's early October and the Chiefs' amazing offense is at home against the Jaguars. What I saw last week at Denver impressed me with the Chiefs, mostly because they neutralized Denver's pass rush with quick throws. Patrick Mahomes went into a hostile environment and produced a late win. He gets the win (and cover) at home Sunday in a game that should probably be Chiefs -4.

We're all looking at the Jaguars' No. 1 defense and assuming it'll be a low-scoring game because they allow only 14 ppg, but I'm betting they get dragged into a desperation spot and forced into playing catch-up. And even though Leonard Fournette isn't expected to play, I expect T.J. Yeldon to have his best pro day against the Chiefs' No. 32 ranked defense. Look for lots of big plays. Over is the play with both teams lighting up the scoreboard.