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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
It is understandable that a lot of people want to believe in the Browns, but the Ravens may well be the most complete team in the AFC, one that has yet to put forth a bad performance despite its Week 2 loss. Cleveland, meanwhile, have played in four close games but not faced a single top-tier defense yet this season. Baker Mayfield is going to be great for the Browns -- I truly believe that -- but expecting him to be great against the Ravens defense in his second career start? I'm not about that life.
This line is treating the Browns like they're the same team from Weeks 1 (3.5-point home 'dogs against a Steelers team people were higher on then than the Ravens now) and 2 (9.5-point road 'dogs in New Orleans). They're not. Baker Mayfield has lifted the ceiling of this offense, and if not for some bad officiating breaks last week, the Browns would be 4-0 ATS. This is a comedown spot for the Ravens, who have a lot of guys on the injury report, after winning in Pittsburgh, and they're on the road again next week. Browns pull off the shocker here.
I'm far more excited about this Cleveland team with Baker Mayfield at QB than Tyrod Taylor, but even so, I'm not ready to rely on it in this game just yet. The Ravens have been one of the better teams in the NFL this season, and are currently scoring 30.8 points per game. Yes, the Browns defense has quietly been one of the better defenses in the league, and yes the Browns are at home, but home hasn't been the friendliest place for Cleveland this decade. Since 2010 the Browns are 24-38-3 ATS.
Baker Mayfield is going to have a difficult time with the Baltimore defense. Joe Flacco is playing great and right now the Ravens are the best team in the AFC. The Ravens have offensive balance, and now Jimmy Smith is coming back, which is huge. Lay the points.
Pretty much forever, Cleveland has been incapable of closing the deal. So, a superior team spotting the Browns a field goal (or less) is a keeper. Baltimore has covered the past five meetings. The Ravens have not stumbled ATS in the past four commutes to Cleveland and just once in the past half-dozen away games overall. Browns QB Baker Mayfield could struggle against Jimmy Smith, Baltimore’s foremost CB who returns from a four-game suspension.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco has played some of his best football this season in quite some time. Also, the Ravens defense is still THE Ravens defense. That's where this matchup against Cleveland will be decided. While rookie QB Baker Mayfield has shown promise in both of his appearances this season, the one common theme you take away from them is that he still has a propensity to hold the football a bit too long and will take sacks. That can't happen vs. Baltimore, as he will see pressure the entire game. The Ravens defense will be the major story coming out of this game.