Though the Steelers have played well for short stretches, there has been nothing particularly impressive about Pittsburgh this season. So when the top defense in the NFL comes into town for a prime time game, I'm not so sure if I can trust them suddenly stepping up to such a challenge -- even at home. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco appears somewhat rejuvenated with an improved receiving corps. As long as the Ravens consistently run the ball and let Alex Collins actually get his, I think they win outright in Pittsburgh. But I'll definitely take the field goal just in case.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco has looked decent so far, but this bet is more about going against the horrendous Steelers defense that allows 30 ppg and 410 ypg. Steel Curtain? More like Shower Curtain. The Ravens have the No. 1 defense so far, allowing just 273 ypg. Moreover, a Ravens wager in this rivalry has lost just once in the last seven meetings. Ravens are the play Sunday.

You know, when rivals like this play you're typically told to throw out the record books, but that's a stupid thing to do. History is the best predictor of the future, and history tells us that the Ravens have gone 4-2-2 ATS at Pittsburgh with Joe Flacco at QB since the 2010 season. Plus, do you want to trust this Steelers defense to cover a spread right now? I don't.

For Baltimore, this total is stratospheric. It was only three weeks ago that the number was 39, followed by 43 and 46. Last year’s high-water mark was 43. A Ravens game has not been close to 50 since the 2015 season. Yes, they rank fifth in scoring, while the Steelers stand second in total offense. Yet it’s a stretch to anticipate a shootout involving QB Joe Flacco and the league’s top-ranked defense (Baltimore’s) through three weeks.

This is a big ask for the Steelers, coming off a Monday night road game and running smack into a divisional rival that has been a thorn in its side. The Steelers have not covered in their last four meetings against the Ravens in Pittsburgh, and Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last six overall. More telling is that the Steelers are on an 0-6 ATS home slide. Monday's game ended with play-making cornerback Mike Hilton (elbow) on the sideline, which makes him iffy. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco flashed some of his old self Sunday as the offense has surpassed modest expectations so far.