There are plenty of reasons to take the Vikings coming off that disastrous loss to the Bills, particularly with Dalvin Cook back in the fold for Minnesota, but let's not forget what the Rams have accomplished thus far in this young season. They enter the game with the better quarterback, the better running back and a defense that is completely capable of holding up against the Vikings, particularly on a short week as Minnesota is trying to get right. Would I much prefer this at 5.5, which is likely where it would have been if not for last week? Absolutely. Ultimately, though, I look at the Rams having dominated opponents to this point in the season and think they can surely win a home primetime game by over a touchdown.

This is a huge step up for the Vikings after their embarrassing home loss to the Bills (+17), the lowest-rated team in regards to making point spreads. But as that game proved, anything can happen in the NFL, which means the best team in the league can also lose at home on an isolated Thursday night game. Minnesota's vaunted defense has been slapped around the last two weeks. I'm looking for that proud defense to bounce back with a strong performance and help get the cover here.

The illusion in which a word, a name, or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards. I'm talking about recency bias. When you hear Vikings do you think elite team that imporved at QB in the off-season? Or do you think team that just got embarrased by arguably the worst team in the league? When you remove Talib and Peters from the Rams defense, my ratings make them -1.8 points better than the Vikings on a neutral field. If we're generous and give the Rams -3 for home field you're looking at a -5 spread for the Rams. The Rams are clearly the better team, but the Vikings are the best bet at +7.

The Rams have cruised to a 3-0 record and the best point differential in the NFL, but it has come against poor competition. This is really their first test, and it comes against another NFC contender fresh off getting embarrassed at home by the lowly Bills. I think the Minnesota defense brings its A-game to this matchup, and the Stefon Diggs-Adam Thielen combo should have a ton of success against a banged up secondary. Don't rule out an outright win for the Vikings in this spot.

I threw out the Minnesota game from last week because I don't think the Vikings prepared for Buffalo at all. That happens sometimes when you have a big game on deck the next Thursday. The Rams lost their starting cornerbacks and even though the backups are good, those changes could throw them off. The Rams defense only has four sacks; look for Minnesota to play them tough. This number is too high.

The Vikings are going to play a lot better than they did Sunday, but this is a brutal travel spot. Having to face the league's top team won't help. Lay it as the Rams stay perfect ATS.