Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Expert Picks
It is fun to believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 14-year NFL veteran is having an incredible season, but it simply does not fit with the prior 13 years of his career. Fitzpatrick is averaging 13.43 yards per completion (nearly double his previous best) while having tossed eight TDs to one INT. This is a guy whose career ratio is 1.27. His quarterback rating is also nearly 60 points higher than it ever has been in a season. Similarly, the Steelers are playing counter to history as well, having started 0-2 for the first time since 2013. Let's also not forget that the Steelers came within five points of the Chiefs (considered by many to be AFC's best), while the Bucs beat up on a Saints team we now know can't cover anyone deep. With Joe Haden back, Ben Roethlisberger pissed off and the Steelers in desperate need of the win, I'll take the short road dog that has seen a nearly five-point shift in the line since it opened eight days ago.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs have been great in the first two weeks of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs shouldn't be favored against the Steelers. My simulations make the Steelers -2.5 road favorites, and that's being generous to Fitzpatrick and assuming he's not the old Fitz we all know. Le'Veon is officially on the trade block and Antonio Brown is frustrated. Take the free point and enjoy a big game from Antonio Brown.
This is a play on motivation, as the Steelers have to treat this game as a must-win scenario with no wins in the bank after two weeks. The Steelers will be tougher to throw on if Joe Haden returns this week as expected, and the Bucs simply don't have any threat of running the ball effectively, which this defense has had trouble with these last two weeks. I expect the Steelers passing game to abuse the Bucs secondary. We're also getting great value, as the Steelers were favored by four points on the look-ahead line.
Mike Tomlin is 12-2 on Monday nights. I can't believe Tampa Bay is that good and I think the Steelers are angry enough that they're going to come out and play a good game.
The line at the Westgate last week was Pittsburgh -4. We all overreact to what we've seen last but how much do we react? This could not be a bigger must-win for the Steelers who have yet to play up to their potential. Tampa has played two games that may be the best two games they play the entire year.