Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
I'm also taking the first half Under with the significant number of 27 coverd but this 27.5 line. The Patriots have played with a very quick pace to start the season and I think that changes a little tonight with Sony Michel healthy to run a little clock.
Matthew Stafford and the Lions might be good for a backdoor cover here, but I like the Patriots -4 at +105 in the first half. Brady should bounce back nicely from losing to the Jags in week 2.
This total has moved to the point where value exists on the Under. Both teams have played with incredible pace through two weeks: Det 2nd, NE 9th. I don't expect this to continue for the Patriots. Sony Michel runnig the ball will help slow things down a bit. The Over is always possible with these two offenses, but the Under is where the value is as I have this projected at 51 points.
It may not be Nick Saban's 12-0 record, but Bill Belichick has similarly owned his former assistants with a 15-8 all-time record against them. Past results are not always an indicator of future failure or success in the NFL -- just look at the Bills earlier today -- but I cannot get that opening week loss to the Jets out of my head. If that's what the Lions let rookie Sam Darnold do to them, Tom Brady should have a field day on Sunday night. The Lions have an offense that can hang tough, and I am definitely worried about Matt Stafford leading a late drive for a backdoor cover, but I'm also expecting New England to let Sony Michel loose and add another dimension to its offense on Sunday night. Lost the 6.5, but I'll still take the TD thinking New England can win by two scores.
With the line move under a touchdown, I think there's value on a Patriots team coming off a loss. New England is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 following a loss, with the average margin of victory slightly over 10 points. Back New England to improve to 9-1 ATS in its last 10 versus losing teams.
If Sam Darnold can beat Detroit the way he did, what is Tom Brady going to do? Lay the points.
This is a high total, but I expect the Patriots offense to get whatever they want against their former defensive coordinator turned head coach. Both Lions games have had 57 points or more scored, and this is the best offense they've seen. Matthew Stafford is capable of putting up garbage-time points in the second half as well and pushing this one Over.
This spot perfectly illustrates how the public perceives New England. It cannot fathom the Patriots laying an egg on consecutive weekends. This line has settled in at a touchdown on the heels of the Pats’ beatdown by Jacksonville. Problem is, Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is rounding into form, and he can punch holes in a defense likely minus two concussed standouts, S Patrick Chung and DE Trey Flowers. The Lions improved vastly from a dreadful opener with a narrow setback at San Francisco, and figure to find the accommodations welcome at their domed home at night.
This spread isn't anywhere near what my advanced computer projections say it should be. The Patriots are winning 75 percent of my simulations, and the average margin of victory is 12. We'll ride this one with the public, which is all over New England as well.
Since the start of the 2016 season Tom Brady and the Patriots have been favored by four points or more on the road 11 times. The Pats are 8-3 ATS in those games, and they've always been good against the spread with Brady.