Taking the Eagles for all the reasons those who agree mention below. Mainly, I like getting 4 and 3 in the spread in a Pats Super Bowl. (Of course, that did come back to bite me last year.) I'm not quite sure Philadelphia pulls it out straight up, but I think this New England team is more susceptible than others in years past.

I'm looking for the Eagles to win the battle up front, on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Fletcher Cox and the Eagles' pass rush will end up being the biggest story of Super Bowl LII. Take the points but don't be surprised by an outright upset.

We've got two of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL, but I keep coming back to this game staying Under and it's mostly because of the Eagles' fourth-ranked defense. I think Philly's No.1-ranked run defense (79.1 rushing yards allowed per game) shuts down the Patriots' running game. I also think the D-line gets enough pressure on Brady to rattle him into making throws earlier than he'd like.

This play is essentially a strong fade of about 90 percent of public sentiment, which has been on the Over. There are some analytical points as well, mostly that these are two top-5 scoring defenses that allowed 27 combined points in their conference title games. Expect Philadelphia to establish a run-based attack to shorten the game and limited possessions by Tom Brady and friends. The scoring should pick up in the second half, but I'm supporting the Under against this key number.

The moneyline is my preferred play in the Super Bowl, and you should be able to get it at least Patriots -180 in Vegas or online. In fact, -175 is pretty easy to find as of Friday. That type of moneyline is more indicative of a game with a 3.5-point spread, so the heavy amount of money on the Eagles moneyline is boosting your value by taking the Patriots. And while I'm a little worried this will be another close Patriots Super Bowl, I'm definitely giving them better than a 67 percent chance of winning the game, so I'll take the -200 on our site even if you can find better odds by shopping around.

I'm looking to play any Under bets for the first quarter or first half. The Patriots tend to pace themselves in Super Bowls before exploding in the second half. In fact, they haven't scored a point in the first quarter in any of their seven Brady-Belichick title games. Only one of those beat a first-half total of 24 as well, and two others matched 24 -- all three games had 0-0 first quarters. Bang the Under in the first quarter, and play the first-half Under as well, and count on both offenses to start slowly.

Now that the total has inched up to 48.5, I'm going to come in on the Under. In order for the game to reach the 50s, it feels like we're going to need both Nick Foles to play well (for the Eagles to hold up their end of the bargain) and the Eagles defense to fall apart (for the Patriots to start fast and turn it into a track meet). Banking on both to happen is putting money on what I think is a low probability play without getting the odds for a low probability play. The three previous Eagles games before the NFC championship had totals under 30. I'll play that trend.

Patriots Super Bowls tend to be close, as they're typically three or four points either way. Despite that, I'm taking them to cover in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles. Philly has been rolling at home, but playing a Super Bowl is a different beast, one the Pats know well. And I just can't count on Nick Foles carving up the Patriots on the biggest stage of his life. My preferred play is a Pats moneyline parlay with the Under, but if you have to play the point spread, I'm going to lay it. Patriots 27, Eagles 17.

New England committed only a dozen turnovers all year, second fewest in the NFL. Of the 43 teams with fewer giveaways than their opponents in the Super Bowl itself, 37 have triumphed straight-up. The Eagles’ defense does not travel well. The team allowed 23.5 points per game away from home, nearly double the amount (12.4) yielded in Philadelphia. There is a yearning for the widely despised Pats to be dethroned. While the lower spread might not make a difference, it invites a play on the Patriots.

The Eagles won't be awed by the moment. In just about every big game lately, the Patriots have been slow starters. Grab Philly in the first half.

This game will come down to the passing game. Expect both teams to stop the run well and it'll put both QBs in the crosshairs to make plays via the air. That also puts onus on the secondaries as well. With the way the Eagles can apply pressure, their secondary in my opinion can pose the bigger threat. And as with most Patriot games in the Super Bowl, they tend to come down to the final possession. Expect this one to be the same. Take the Eagles and the points.

Do you find it eye-opening that New England was rated fifth for points yielded, much higher than its yardage allowance? The Eagles, at No. 4, were even better. Digging deeper, the Washington Post determined that Philly gave up 1.4 points for each opponent’s possession this season, second-lowest in the NFL. New England permitted 1.6 points, sixth best. The Eagles deftly played a card in the NFC Finals -- Foles unexpectedly throwing deep -- that cannot be replayed. Coach Bill B’s defense will be prepared for such a scenario, and the element of surprise that worked so well against Minnesota is gone. Philly is likely to return to the dink-and-dunk passing approach. The Pats have a shutdown secondary at times -- as do the Eagles -- so Foles’ offense will advance the ball in small steps, not big ones. New England’s defense, perceived as so-so but much better than that, and outsized expectations for Brady’s offense have contributed to the current 10-4 Under run by the Pats. If this game remains close, as I anticipate, both teams will rely on their ground attack more than the trailing side would in a one-sided affair. Especially Philly, which would like to shorten the game.

I'm taking what I perceive as value with the Eagles getting the points and it all stems from the QB play. While oddsmakers keep doubting Nick Foles, I think the system that made Philly the NFC's No. 1 seed is meshing well with Foles as he gets more comfortable. He just shredded the NFL's No. 1 defense in the biggest game of his life. Foles has the momentum with him and he's got the better defense on his side. Eagles are the play.

New England has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games, but all that does here is push the number higher than it probably should be. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS when they get eight-plus days between games, compared to 3-2 for the Pats. My simulations project the game coming down to a field goal. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the playoffs so far, and I'll bet it happens one last time. Take the Eagles and the points.

The Eagles were underdogs in the divisional series, and won straight up. They were underdogs in the NFC Championship, and won in dominating fashion. They're underdogs again for the Super Bowl -- this time they should be. But Philly wins in 43 percent of my simulations. Taking the Eagles to win at +200 is a great value.