The weather doesn't bother me one bit. Though I did not think the Falcons played well offensively despite dominating the Rams last week, Atlanta has enough to beat a Philadelphia team starting Nick Foles. Since the surprising four-touchdown game against the Giants, Foles has gone 23/49 with one touchdown and two interceptions. In fact, his struggles could lead Nate Sudfeld onto the field in the second half. Dan Quinn and his defensive staff have finally fixed the Falcons' unit, and now that it is running as hot as it did last season, Atlanta should be able to put up enough points to cover a field goal.

These are two of the top defensive units in the NFL, and the frigid conditions Saturday in Philadelphia could slow down the offense a bit. Even so, these clubs have so many playmakers that it won't take much offense to clip this meager total. Atlanta probably should have had more than 26 points last week, and the Eagles have shown they can score with Nick Foles at QB. Even in a defense-oriented struggle, this should go Over the posted total.

It will be 34 degrees in Philadelphia with winds gusting at 17 mph -- just blustery enough to give the quarterbacks a bit of a problem. The line is showing a major disparity between expected QB play with Nick Foles, dropping the Eagles to a No. 1 seed getting points at home to a No. 6 seed. I like the Eagles' running game to be the source of their success. I also like the Eagles' No.4 defense, and opportunistic D that had 31 takeaways. Take Philly at +3.

Had Carson Wentz been starting, I'm hearing the Eagles would have been a seven-point favorite -- and I totally agree. But how can there be a 10-point dropoff from the No.1 QB to the No. 2?The answer is simple: There is no way! Not even Aaron Rodgers is worth that much. Nick Foles was 14-4 straight-up in 2013-14. After evaluating his performance this season, the biggest dropoff I can give him is four points. Foles had the last two weeks to work with the first team, and make no mistake, he took all of the first-team snaps. He will also have RB Jay Ajayi, who ran for 130 yards as a Dolphin earlier this season. The Eagles have also had more time to prepare, compared to Atlanta, which had a long flight home from L.A.

The Under has hit in six straight Falcons' games, but this total has fallen too far. Take the value and go Over.

The Falcons' defensive improvement is for real, and it should carry over against a Philly team without its leader. While Atlanta caught some early breaks against the Rams, the Falcons' second-half performance was no fluke. Lay it as the No. 1 seed goes down.

Neither team has played to a total lower than this all season. (Two Philadelphia games matched it). Extenuating circumstances explain this number, chiefly the punchless performance the past two games by Eagles QB Nick Foles in lieu of the ailing Carson Wentz. Secondly, there was Atlanta’s stifling defense last Saturday against the suddenly impotent L.A. Rams. And: the fact that both teams are trending Under. But the memory of Foles’ four-touchdown display in his first start this season remains fresh, and the bye week will help him get refocused. The teams ranked seventh and eighth in offense during the regular season. Plus, the unseasonably warm weather -- temperatures in the 50s are forecast at kickoff -- is conducive to some scoring.

Rarely do you see the No. 1 seed in the playoffs (Eagles) enter a home playoff game as the underdog. That’s what we have in this situation and, to be honest, this game will look a lot like the Falcons/Rams game. That is, the home team's quarterback play will be the reason why it fails to advance. Look for Nick Foles to have an up-and-down day, costing the Eagles a chance to move on to the next round.

Last week, I identified Atlanta as a live underdog against the inexperienced Rams, and a lack of poise by Los Angeles at times made a difference. Now, the Falcons catch another break as they face the top-seeded Eagles minus Carson Wentz, who was the MVP front-runner before sustaining a season-ending injury. Philadelphia was the class of the NFC all season, but barely squeezed by the Giants and Raiders with Nick Foles at QB. He's capable of leading the Eagles to a win but, in a battle of top-10 defensive units, I'm looking for the Falcons to win and return to the NFC title game.

I'm definitely laying the points with the live No. 6 seed here if I can get less than a field goal. I don't have full trust in Matt Ryan to go on the road in a tough spot and pull out a win, but I do trust the Falcons defense at this point, as they've been carrying this team for much of the second half. The Falcons rushing attack combined with Julio Jones will put the onus on Nick Foles to make plays if the Eagles are going to win, and I can't see him coming through. The excellent Falcons offensive line neutralizes the Eagles' defensive strength, and the Falcons move on.