Buffalo ranks 29th in yards per play and is facing the NFL's top defense in yards-per-play allowed. Plus, LeSean McCoy is not at full strength. Lay it with the Jaguars.

Let's start with some Buffalo stats. The Bills rank last among playoff participants in scoring offense. Scoring defense? Last, too. Now, they bump into a nasty defense with RB LeSean McCoy (ankle), who accounts for 31 percent of the team's yardage, listed as questionable. Indications are that McCoy, who tops the team in receptions as well as rushing yards, will give it a go. But his restricted movements mean QB Tyrod Taylor will assume a burden likely too heavy to handle. Welcome to the most lopsided mismatch of the opening weekend, even with a playoff infant spotting his opponent nearly double digits.

Two of the best stories of the season meet up in Round 1 of the playoffs. The two major questions in this game are, can the Bills stop the run and can Blake Bortles avoid turnovers? This will be a defensive slugfest, so grab the points.

Would have been nice to grab this at -7, but I'll still hop on it early in the week at -7.5 with the expectation the line could shoot up if LeSean McCoy looks unlikely to play as the week goes on. The Bills are coming off an emotional high after improbably securing a playoff spot on Sunday, and the offense has had trouble generating points even with a healthy McCoy. Now they have to do it on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Blake Bortles has looked shaky lately, but those last two games were on the road; his home/road splits are stark, and the Jacksonville offense should have no issues rolling at home.

The past four meetings have gone Over and I like this one to go Over as well, thanks to Jacksonville creating several short-field scoring opportunities because of its defense and special teams. It's going to be a rocking Jacksonville party Sunday, where scoring breeds more scoring by the Jags. Go Over.

This play on the Jaguars has nothing to do with the AFC's No. 1 defense or Blake Bortles and everything to do with Buffalo being awful on the road and possibly not having its best player. LeSean McCoy's ankle injury has him in a questionable status, but even when he's healthy Buffalo still went 2-5 on the road before beating a Miami squad, 22-16, with David Fales playing QB for the Dolphins. I'm expecting the Bills to shoot themselves in the foot a few times and Jacksonville to win by at least 17 points.