Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
Read More
Expert Picks
Adding a money line play on top of my pointspread play. The Falcons' struggle of a season ends tonight.
The better offense. The better defense. At home. The Rams are an easy pick here even though I believe the Falcons' defense is underrated. There's just something off about Atlanta's offense under Steve Sarkisian, and I think Los Angeles is prepared to take advantage of it Saturday night.
I'd recommend taking the widely available numbers of +6 and +6.5 as of this writing. Even so, I believe Atlanta is a live underdog in this one. The Rams have made an impressive turnaround and could certainly pull away behind the league's most explosive offense. But after struggling to just reach the playoffs a year removed from their epic Super Bowl collapse, I expect the more experienced Falcons to perform well Saturday. Look for it to end on a short key number either way.
We keep waiting and waiting for Atlanta to pick up where it left off after the almost-Super Bowl title season. At some point -- like, now -- we must accept the Falcons have declined. Chronic injuries to Julio Jones, who has tried to soldier on, have knocked him off the pedestal as the league’s premier WR. The offensive line cannot consistently protect QB Matt Ryan. Let’s forget about the team names on the jerseys and examine who’s playing better. In nearly every aspect, that’s Los Angeles.
I've got the Rams rated as the top NFC team. meaning they'd be favored on a neutral field against the Vikings, Eagles and Saints. This may be their toughest test along the way before reaching the Super Bowl. What I like most about them, besides an NFL-leading 29.9 ppg, is that they travel well, going 7-1 on the road. It shows they're tough, focused. I just don't think the Falcons can keep up here. Maybe Kyle Shanahan's Falcons offense from last season could, but not Steve Sarkisian's version this year. Rams get the double-digit home win.
The Falcons and Rams have a ton of offensive weapons to make this game a track meet. But I do see the Falcons defense being able to step up and make things very uncomfortable for Jared Goff in the pocket. Take the points with the more experienced Falcons.
Atlanta should be scoring more points than it has. The Falcons rank eighth in total and passing yards yet 15th in scoring (22.1 per game). One culprit is dropped passes. Twenty-eight, tied for the second most in the league, might not sound like much, but that’s two per game. Costly. The Rams average a fraction below 30 points per outing. Combined with the Falcons’ norm, an Over might seem the preferred option, especially with the total surpassed in the last five Rams’ games. Offsetting the L.A. trend, however, is Atlanta going -- and staying -- Under during the same time frame. QB Matt Ryan’s accuracy has dipped five percent from last season, and he has recorded just eight more TD throws than interceptions. A few key injuries tilt the scales more toward the Under. It would hardly come as a shocker for Ryan to regain his touch and rookie Rams coach Sean McVay to put his offensive play-calling mastery on full display. Still, 48.5 is a high target. Hitting it is improbable.
The Rams are the better team from top to bottom, but there are factors that should help the Falcons cover the number. First, the Rams don't have a great homefield advantage, going 4-4 in L.A. this year mostly due to a spotty effort by the defense. This road trip shouldn't phase the Falcons after they did it in December of last year (a game they led 42-0 at one point). And this young Rams team could easily come out tight in its first exposure to the postseason. The Falcons' defense has been improving in recent weeks, and the offense has been here before. In tougher conditions, I might fade them, but this is a great spot for Atlanta.