The Chiefs are resting all their key players and Denver has been much more dominant at home than the road, but Paxton Lynch is at QB and he's a disaster. Even without Lynch, Denver is an ugly 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Think of Trevor Siemian on the road and that's what Denver likely gets out of Lynch this week. Just bad QB play and the other side is starting a rookie on the road. This game might have snow and temperatures are 9 degrees. Don't expect a lot of points here. Under is the play.

If the promising Patrick Mahomes, who enjoyed a dazzling preseason, had Kansas City’s usual offensive weapons at his disposal, it would be different. But this is a guy fresh out of college in a unit likely sprinkled with other backups for an insignificant game for the playoff-bound Chiefs. Denver is in a different boat, with its postseason hopes extinguished. Yet the Broncos are home-sweet-home after a brutal stretch of four roadies in five weeks. Wielding the league’s the No. 4 pass defense, they should spoil Mahomes’ initiation.

The Chiefs will debut their rookie QB Patrick Mahomes in this game. The Broncos' defense still has a lot of talent, but their offense has really hurt them this season. Look for Mahomes to give the Chiefs' fans a positive sneak peek into the future.

This line reflects that the Chiefs will be resting their starters in preparation for the playoffs. What it doesn't reflect is that Patrick Mahomes might actually have a good day against a pass defense that's struggled this year. It also doesn't reflect that Paxton Lynch will likely start for the Broncos, and he's put nothing on tape in his first two years that suggests he should be favored. The Chiefs' defense has shown up the past three weeks and carry the day here, while Mahomes could turn this into a rout.