A 6-1, the Jets are the best team in the NFL in terms of ATS record at home. I'm very concerned about the cross country travel and early start time for the Chargers in this game. My simulations make the Jets +3 home underdogs, making New York a strong value bet at the current price of +7.

Everything says the Jets should play well at home, but I'm going against it and I expect the Chargers to take control of this situation as a player still in the playoff race. Jets QB Bryce Petty will struggle and the two bookend pass rushers for the Chargers will make him uncomfortable. Chargers get the cover.

The Chargers have scored 7, 7, and 10 points in the first half of their three 1 p.m. games this year, and scoring for them in these cross-country games has been tough in general. The Jets are featuring Bryce Petty at quarterback against a tough defense. This game should be no better than 10-10 at the break, and it's worth betting now with the added benefit of getting -105.

This is a boatload of points to yield to a home team. Focusing on one matchup explains it. L.A. wields a ferocious pass rush that can crush inexperienced QBs. It was less effective against veteran Alex Smith last weekend, but Bryce Petty was all deer-in-the-headlights against New Orleans. New York was fortunate to cover the huge 16-point line. The Jets have exceed expectations at home, as their recent 7-1 ATS record attests, but that record was built without a third-string QB.