Ignore the trends, nearly all of which favor Jacksonville. The bettors are heeding that advice, having lowered the spread from its original 5.5. So much love for San Francisco, which opened with nine straight-up losses, is justified. The 49ers have won four of five outright and are on a 3-0 streak with QB Jimmy Garoppolo starting. His passer rating has gone from 82.2 to 92.2 to 106.8 in those games. The Niners defense is chipping in by allowing under five yards per snap in the recent stretch.

The 49ers haven't let me down yet since Jimmy Garoppolo took over. Grab the points before this line falls any further.

Everyone is loving QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and there’s some justification for it. He has the Niners on a 3-game winning streak. If you’re being honest and unbiased, though, it has been a lot of short, quick stuff against mediocre defenses. This will be his toughest test yet and I would expect that he, and that Niners offense, will struggle mightily against the playoff-bound Jaguars. Lay the points.

The Jaguars are playing extremely well right now, but I don't expect them to travel cross-country and blow out a 49ers team that is playing at a high level as well behind their new quarterback. The Jaguars' only loss since Week 6 was when they had to go to Arizona, where they were beaten by an inferior team. Blake Bortles is playing out of his mind the last three weeks, but all those were at home -- on the road this year, he's topped 145 passing yards just once (in Indianapolis). The 49ers have a good enough rush defense to make this a low-scoring game, and I think the home team keeps it close.