New Orleans has only failed to cover six twice at home this season -- in a loss to New England back on Sept. 17 and in the close win over Washington. It just covered that number against a better Carolina team a couple weeks ago, and I'm of the belief the Saints would've beaten the Falcons in their last meeting in Atlanta had Alvin Kamara not been injured on the game's first drive. At home on a roll with the Falcons stopping by after a short week, the Saints get the job done.

At first glance I thought this line was too high, as I figured these teams were close to even. But the Saints are much better than the Falcons, scoring 83 points more while allowing the same number of points. The Saints can beat you passing or rushing, and with Atlanta ranking 30th in rush defense DVOA, expect to see a healthy dose of the Saints ground game, which had a rare off day in their first meeting after Alvin Kamara left early. With this also being a revenge spot for the Saints after losing in the first meeting, and with Atlanta on short rest, this could be a Saints blowout win.

The underdog has covered seven of the past eight meetings and I like that angle here as well, but more so just because the Saints are playing well below their rating lately, covering the spread just once in their past five games. The Falcons have been storming back to relevance, winning five of their last six (4-2 ATS), and they can win the NFC South by winning at New Orleans this week and beating the Panthers in Atlanta next week. I like the Falcons to keep their momentum going and get the cover here.

The defending NFC champion Falcons are in control of their own playoff destiny, and while the Saints have had a great season as well, this spread is just too big in what should is projecting to be a down-to-the-wire finish. Atlanta is covering in 60 percent of my simulations.