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Expert Picks
The Ravens’ offense is revived. Still it has not reached a level that warrants Baltimore spotting any opponent nearly two touchdowns. The Ravens do not pound lower-level foes as they should, with just four covers in the past 14 home dates versus visitors with a losing road record. Baltimore could be thin at WR if Jeremy Maclin (ankle) is shelved, and left OT Ronnie Stanley (knee), a starter in every game but one, was withheld from practice Thursday.
Don’t look now, but Baltimore has gone from atrocious to occasionally robust on offense. The Ravens alone have reached 40 points scored in two of their past seven games and hit 38 in another. Their ground game has found a groove. QB Joe Flacco, who seemed to have lost his way early this season, lately has lived up to his reputation. The O-line has overcome injuries to lend to the cause. Particularly valuable is an avoidance of turnovers. Baltimore has been guilty of just one the last pair of outings. Admittedly, the Colts cannot be counted on to contribute to the total. Their six most recent games have stayed Under, with a high of 40. Baltimore’s three shutouts is a concern, but let’s keep that uber-impressive achievement in context. The victims were Cincinnati, Miami and Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay. One insignificant trend might have contributed to a low ceiling on the total. The Under has prevailed in 10 of the last 11 meetings. But Baltimore and Indy have not faced off in more than three years, so throw out that number. It might be prudent for Over lovers to hold off committing before getting clarity on the weather. The early weather calls for rain, though predicted temperatures are relatively mild and high winds are not foreseen. The Colts adhere to the ground regardless, so they should land in the teens on points as usual no matter the conditions. Had this game unfolded in midseason, the total would have started with the number three. The Ravens’ recent offensive outbursts have nudged the figure into the low 40s. It should be a tad higher.
This is a monster line that will be difficult for the offensively-challenged Ravens to cover. In my simulations, the Colts are covering 59 percent of the time. Grab the points.