Although many observers expect this AFC showdown to turn into a proverbial shootout, I'm thinking defense will decide the outcome. Both clubs still have among the top scoring defensive units in the NFL, both allowing just a shade more than 19 ppg. They allowed 65 combined points to mediocre offensive teams in their past outings, and I expect both to take a conservative defensive approach Sunday in order to force long drives and prevent big plays. A potentially wet field in Pittsburgh could slow down the offenses as well.

An immutable rule of thumb: If a top-notch team is spotted three points at home, seize it. The spread has been bumped up from one in the belief that New England is incapable of two clunkers in a row after it bowed to Miami. Overlooked is a potentially dire injury situation on defense, with DT Alan Branch (knee) doubtful and LB Kyle Van Noy (calf) and DE Trey Flowers (ribs) questionable. Their absence would more than counter Pittsburgh’s loss of Ryan Shazier (back), with Steelers RB Le’Veon looking at a career day. Then there is the vaguely sore Achilles bothering Pats QB Tom Brady. A pair of road games six days apart, which means a short week for Brady’s R&R, adds to the Patriots’ vulnerability.

I'm going to go ahead and hop on this now and not risk that it gets back up to -3. The Steelers could be in the running for the worst 11-2 team ever -- every win feels ugly and like it could go either way, the defense has fallen off a cliff, negating Big Ben's improvement in overall team performance. The Patriots are the Patriots: not great statistically as a team but capable of blowing out anyone. Tom Brady has owned the Steelers, and Bill Belichick isn't going to get outcoached by Mike Tomlin. Throw the Monday night tape in the trash; no way the Patriots lose this one.

I'm jumping on this now because this line could very well hit a full field goal. In any case, look at the series history. New England has absolutely owned Pittsburgh, winning the last four matchups, all convincingly. The latest meeting was a 36-17 stomping in last year's playoffs. In his career versus the Steelers, Tom Brady is 10-2 with 29 TDs and three INTs. If you only include the last nine matchups with Pittsburgh, Brady has tossed 24 TDs against zero INTs. In my simulations, New England is covering 59 percent of the time. Lay the points.