Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
This would be a lookahead spot for most teams with a matchup against the Steelers ahead that will likely decide homefield advantage in the playoffs, but Bill Belichick isn't the type to look ahead. This line is just about right, after the Pats were favored by 17 at home against this team a few weeks ago and barely covered. Even without Gronk, they should be just fine -- in fact, they do better against the spread without him (meaning bettors likely are overreacting when he's not in the lineup). I don't give Miami a great shot at moving the ball against the Pats defense, and the league's best offense will score enough to cover.
The spread was 17 when these teams met in Foxborough recently, with New England covering in a 35-17 win. Now the Pats go to Miami, where the Dolphins don't enjoy a huge homefield edge, as more modest 11.5-point favorites. New England has covered six straight and seven of eight after pounding Buffalo 23-3 in Week 13. The Pats have gone eight straight games without allowing more than 17 points. In my simulations, New England covers this number 62 percent of the time, even without Rob Gronkowski. Lay the points.