I understand why you want to take Seattle at home on Sunday night. I do. I hope you understand why I cannot when the best team in the league is now giving less than four. Philadelphia has not lost since Sept. 17, and while that makes it prime for an upset, it's also worth noting that the Eagles haven't failed to cover a field goal spread since Oct. 1 -- a road loss at the Chargers. Philadelphia is on a 5-0 ATS streak with everything clicking. The Seahawks have only beaten the 49ers and Cardinals since the start of November with losses to the Falcons and Redskins -- both at home. I may be getting suckered in by the spread, but that’s OK, I’m rolling with Philly and not thinking twice.

With this line dipping before kick, I think there's plenty of value to be had on the road team. We know Seattle is a tough out at home, but they're been reduced to a team with Russell Wilson on offense, Bobby Wagner on defense and not much else. The Eagles have the most talent in the league, and I think the defense plays well enough to stave off a backdoor Russell Wilson cover, thanks in part to the defensive line owning the battle up front.I wouldn't have played Philly -6 earlier in the week, but I'm fine laying the points here.

The situation favors the desperate home team, but the matchups are all Philly. Lay it.

The Eagles are rolling with eight straight covers and there's no denying they look Super Bowl worthy, but this week's number is insanely overinflated to the point where taking the points is the only logical way to wager on the side -- maybe the 'dog money line, too. I have the Eagles -1 here, which is saying Philly is four points better on a neutral field. The books need Seattle money because the flock is going just one way, and I'm here to help. Seattle and all the points is the play.

This looks like a really good matchup for the red-hot Eagles. But Seattle still has a very good defense within the front seven and against the run. They’ll make this game a Wentz-vs-Wilson affair, and that’s enough to make this one very close. Grab the points.

Few teams have been able to slow down Carson Wentz and that Eagles offense. But they haven't faced a team as good as the Seahawks all year. My simulations show Seattle covering 59 percent of the time.

This is a rare opportunity to back Seattle as a home underdog in a prime-time game and the Seahawks are worth a play Sunday night. Philadelphia is a deserved favorite, with the league's highest-scoring offense, third-ranked scoring defense (17.4 ppg) and top rushing defense. Even so, the short-handed Seahawks, despite their one-dimensional offense and sometimes-vulnerable defense, have found a way to be competitive in these spots until the end. With the division lead just a game out of their reach, expect Seattle to at least take this one to the wire.