Atlanta has done a great job winning its last three games and scoring 27+ in all three. The problem? The Falcons faced the offensively challenged Cowboys and Bucs with a solid road win at the Seahawks sandwiched in between. Minnesota, on the other hand, has rolled the Rams and picked up a no-doubter Thanksgiving win over the Lions along with beating the Redskins on the road. The Vikings have won seven straight games and will make it eight on Sunday. Tried to wait for +3 to come back, but I think they win outright anyway.

With this line set at Atlanta -3, you can tell these teams are rated evenly. But I have the Vikings as the better team, so I'm going to take the points here. The Vikings play well in all phases, ranking fourth in offensive DVOA and sixth in defensive DVOA. The one "weakness" might be their rush offense (16th per DVOA, 20th in yards per carry), but they've rolled for 300-plus yards in their last two games combined, both against playoff contenders. The Falcons rank 32nd in rush defense DVOA, and I'd give the coaching advantage in Zimmer vs. Sarkisian to the Vikings defense. The Falcons could also be less focused with a huge matchup with the division-leading Saints on Thursday.

The Falcons look like the 2016 Falcons again, winning and covering their last three while averaging 31 ppg. But it's hard to minimize what the Vikings have done while becoming the second-best cover team in the NFL (8-3 ATS). Not only does Minnesota rank No. 5 in defense, allowing 290 ypg, but the Vikes also rank No. 5 in offense behind the freakish confidence growth of QB Case Keenum. He's accounted for 10 TDs against three turnovers over his last four games. At this juncture, I trust the Vikings much more and will play them on the moneyline as well as against the spread.

The Falcons look like the 2016 Falcons again, winning and covering their last three while averaging 31 ppg. But it's hard to minimize what the Vikings have done while becoming the second-best cover team in the NFL (8-3 ATS). Not only does Minnesota rank No. 5 in defense, allowing 290 ypg, but they also rank No. 5 in offense behind the freakish confidence growth of QB Case Keenum. At this juncture, I trust the Vikings much more and getting +3 seals the play.