The Jets may be 4-7, but they’ve managed to be a very dependable team in close games. Of their six losses, only one was by more than double digits. Take the points Sunday with the home underdog.

I was wrong on the Jets last week, but it felt like they should have had the cover, as they were doomed by an Austin Seferian-Jenkins end-zone drop, a questionable TD overturn and two non-offensive TDs in quick succession. They'll do better here against a Chiefs team that is cratering, going 1-5 since their 5-0 start, with many of those games coming against subpar competition. Josh McCown is capable of moving the ball on a bad Chiefs defense and could grab a backdoor cover if needed, and a quality Jets secondary should keep the Chiefs from rediscovering their lost explosion on offense.

The Chiefs have gone from 5-0 Super Bowl contenders to 6-5 and trying to hold off the Chargers and Raiders in the AFC South. But the overachieving Jets have hit a wall, losers of five of their last six. I suspect there's a rally in the Chiefs, and simulations have KC covering 59 percent of the time.

The Jets outplayed the Panthers but were done in by allowing two non-offensive touchdowns late. Against a K.C. team that's mired in offensive futility, I'll grab the points with a Jets team that usually covers as a home dog.