I don't have any confidence in Brett Hundley playing well at Heinz Field against a top defense. In my projections, Pittsburgh is winning by 17 and covering this number 59 percent of the time. Lay the points.

The Steelers are clearly the better team in this matchup, but there are a few key things to note that make me lean toward a Green Bay cover. The Steelers have sleepwalked through these types of games this year, twice failing to cover as double-digit favorites. The Packers have the run defense to put the game on Big Ben's shoulders, and he's looked his age with inconsistent player this year. Another point: the Steelers have been an Under play throughout the season, only seeing their games go Over twice, and low-scoring games make covering big numbers tough. I expect a conservative second-half from Pittsburgh and enough points from Green Bay to cover.