These Vikings have turned into a decent offensive squad with Case Keenum running the show, and with just a little bit of defense they've been able to win their last six games and cover the spread in their last five. They've gone Over the total in three of the last four and the Lions are tied with being the best Over team in the league and have gone Over in five of their last six. Over is the best bet here.

“Thanksgiving Day” conjures up images of a full belly, the company of family and friends and, recently, Lions’ success. Detroit has won four Turkey Day games in a row straight up — after dropping the previous nine — and five consecutively ATS. The first course of this three-course Thursday football meal has been low-scoring of late, but the Lions enter off a three-game outright win streak in which they averaged 31.7 points. The Vikings’ ultra-impressive win over the Rams last Sunday kick-started a dramatic line movement from even-money, and the three is a godsend to Detroit backers. It provides some cushion if overtime ensues, but the home side has this holiday thing figured out well enough to close out Minnesota in regulation.

Getting in before this line gets any higher after I already missed a half-point of value. The Lions have beaten bad teams lately, while the Vikings have flexed against the Rams and Redskins -- teams capable of putting up points -- over the last two weeks. Minnesota's defense should get the job done despite the fact that Detroit plays better at home (and on Thanksgiving).

I think we're getting a little bit of line value here, and I'm jumping on before this line hits three. The Lions have been blown out of the water on the ground the last two weeks and rank just 20th in net yards per pass attempt, and a Minnesota offense firing on all cylinders should be too much for the Detroit defense to handle. The Vikings also have one of the best defenses in the league, and I expect them to handle Detroit's one-sided attack. This is a big game for the Vikings after losing to the Lions at home early in the season; they pull out all the stops to get the win here.

The Lions have beaten the Vikings three straight times. Detroit also has won four straight on Thanksgiving. So why am I backing the Vikes? Look back at the first matchup, when Detroit won 14-7 at U.S. Bank Stadium on Oct. 1. Minnesota outgained the Lions but lost the turnover battle, 3-0. The Vikes aren't likely to be minus-3 again. And look at Detroit's current three-game win streak. It came against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Browns and Bears. Minny comes in on a six-game win streak that includes victories over the Rams (7-3) and Ravens (5-5). In Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, Case Keenum has one of the most underrated WR tandems in the league. Lay it with the Vikes.