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Expert Picks
Wish I'd jumped on this earlier, but I'll still take the Browns at this number, based on the QB change and the fact that Cleveland will for the first time this season field its entire starting defensive unit. Grab the 9.5 before it falls any further.
Backing the Browns has seemed like a good idea before over the last season and a half, but it has always proven to be foolish in retrospect. So why am I doing it here? The Browns have changed quarterbacks, and the offense has looked good this season with Kevin Hogan under center. His yards per attempt numbers would be good enough to rank at or near the top of the league over a larger sample size. He'll also get to face a gutted Texans pass rush with no J.J. Watt or Whitney Mercilus. And the Browns defense is trending up with Myles Garrett and Jamie Collins healthy.
The Browns come in winless in their first five games, and they haven't covered a spread in their last four. I don't see a win or cover Sunday, either, as I expect Texans QB Deshaun Watson to continue his maturation process. His Texans were simply outmatched by better teams like the Chiefs last week, but that won't be the case here. Look for him to continue to put up good numbers and lead the Texans to another cover.