At 4-0 ATS, the Bills have been a bettor’s best friend. The line is starting to adjust to the trend, and Cincinnati is spotting only a field goal at home despite having righted itself the past two weeks. The Bengals extended Green Bay into overtime and pounded Cleveland, both on the road. Kudos to the Bills for upending Atlanta, but the Falcons played most of the day without their two finest receivers. Cincy’s turn-around coincided with a change in offensive coordinators. Landing the (slightly) better team at home while giving just three points is a no-brainer.

I hate taking totals this low, but I don't see any way to get away from it here. Both teams are missing key pass-catchers in this one, and both are far more impressive on defense. The Bills should maul the Bengals' porous offensive line, while the Bengals' front seven is good enough to limit the Bills' rushing attack. Maybe a defensive TD comes into play and ruins the Under, but so be it.

I'm projecting 31 points for Bills-Bengals, giving us a strong play on the Under. The Bills lead the NFL in scoring defense, and these teams played a 16-12 game in Cincy last year. The Under is cashing in a whopping 72 percent of my simulations.

Although Bill Lazor has revived Cincy's moribund offense, the Bengals will be hard-pressed to score a lot Sunday against Buffalo's league-leading defense (13.5 ppg). These teams met last year in Cincy and Buffalo won 16-12, forcing Andy Dalton into two picks. Grab the field goal now.

Gotta hop on Buffalo +3 while it's available. This should be a low-scoring game considering both these sides are much better on defense, but I'm beginning to trust this Bills team. They have the top scoring defense in the league, they've turned the ball over just once on offense and they have a pair of impressive wins on their resume over the last two weeks against the Broncos and Falcons. All the Bengals have done is rout a bad Browns team and almost hang with a beat-up Packers team. This could wind up being similar to Cincy's 20-0 loss to the Ravens in Week 1 when all is said and done.