Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The Patriots defense will play better if Dont'a Hightower can go, as his absence has been the key to teams scoring points in bunches against New England. The Panthers offense also looked out of sorts last week against a Saints defense that should have been easy to exploit. In order for the Patriots not to cover this number, both these things will have to happen: Pats defense struggles again, and Panthers offense gets back on track. We know Tom Brady's offense will get its points, and we can be reasonably certain at least one of those two points above doesn't happen.
I think I was wrong about the Panthers stepping up this season, but I've seen some things from the Patriots defense to indicate this will be a high scoring game. The Patriots' shabby defense has helped all three of their games go Over the total and I like that angle a lot this week. The Patriots are currently on a run of going Over in nine of their last 11 games. Over is the top play here.