The 49ers have done a really good job defensively thus far despite facing two teams many had pegged as headed to the playoffs in the Panthers and Seahawks. Those teams might also have the best two defenses in the league, and San Francisco should see the passing game improve from here on out. The rushing attack has been just fine, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt (second in NFL). The Rams are in a tough spot on the road for a Thursday night game, and the 49ers should be able to keep it close at the very least.

I think this will be an evenly matched game, with the 49ers defense keeping the game close and the crowd in Santa Clara helping make a difference. The 49ers’ play at Seattle was impressive, but there is a reality that Brian Hoyer and Kyle Shanahan have struggled and have no TDs in the first two games. The Rams can move the ball, but I like both defenses to keep this a low scoring game. Under is the top play.

My simulations suggest the Rams should be -4.5 favorites against this weak 49ers squad. Jared Goff is playing well to start the season, so I'm comfortable laying less than a field goal with the Rams.

The Rams have gotten better play from Jared Goff this season, which has led to better play from Todd Gurley. The Niners told a lie to folks over the summer that Brian Hoyer gave them a better chance to win than Colin Kaepernick. Lay the points.

The Rams lost both games last year to the 49ers. I have the Rams four points better than San Francisco and once you add in revenge, I can make the Rams 6.5-point favorites on a neutral field. The average home advantage in the NFL is just 2.5 points. San Francisco's home average is 1. So I can make the Rams -5.5 and feel good laying less than a field goal. We've seen a very good start for Rams QB Jared Goff, who's hitting 67 percent of his passes with just one interception. He's playing better than Brian Hoyer. Lay it with L.A.

Both these teams have better defenses than offenses, and considering this is on a Thursday, we should expect even sloppier play from the offenses than usual. The 49ers have done nothing on offense through two games against excellent defenses, and another excellent defense awaits in this matchup. The 49ers defense has given up just three TDs in two games, so they're no pushovers. This matchup went Under 35 in regulation five straight times before the 49ers won an offensive shootout 22-21 late last year.

Make fun of the 49ers all you want, but statistics and the eye test suggest their defense isn’t half-bad. San Fran’s offensive futility is far more obvious. Most glaringly, the Niners have yet to score a touchdown. In fact, they are not even getting a whiff of the goal line. Robbie Gould’s four field goals have set sail from at least 30 yards away. Their ground game has been creditable, with Carlos Hyde churning out 169 yards. The Niners likely will remain a one-trick pony for the time being by handing off to Hyde and eschewing downfield throws. That is one-half of the formula for a low-scoring game. Will the Rams do their share? The Rams are 12th-rated on offense. However, both L.A. games unfolded at home against mediocre defenses (Colts, Redskins). Recent meetings point further to an Under play. More often than not, Thursday games are shy on scoring. This one fits the bill.