What you saw from the Jags' defense in Week 1 wasn't a mirage. They're a Top-10 unit. That defense, along with their running game, should shield Blake Bortles from having to do too much. Jacksonville is covering 58 percent of my simulations and winning outright 55 percent of the time.

Credit to the Jags for piling up 10 sacks in propelling them at Houston last week. QB Marcus Mariota will be tougher to drag down; the Titans’ 28 sacks allowed a year ago tied for seventh fewest. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles (11-for-21) did not inspire confidence in the win and should be asked to do more this time than mostly hand off to RBs. Despite three straight-up losses in a row in north Florida, which was hit hard by Irma over the weekend and imposed distractions for the Jags, it is a stretch to imagine the Titans sink two games behind in the AFC South so soon.

Jacksonville came up with 29 points at Houston last week and a huge defensive effort, including 10 sacks, while Tennessee struggled with only 16 points at home against an average Raiders defense. The Jags allowed only 203 yards, the lowest in the NFL. But whenever Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles hook up, they light up the scoreboard. The past three meetings: Jax 38-17, Tenn 36-22, Tenn 42-39. I'm on the Over here.

The Titans are a good 0-1 team that lost a back and forth game to another good team. The Jaguars are a questionable 1-0 team that beat up an emotionally drained Texans team that wasn't ready to play. They won't have a free pass to Marcus Mariota like they did the Houston QBs. Expect the Titans to move the ball on the ground consistently and confirm that Blake Bortles is a pumpkin.