Saints QB Drew Brees has a passer rating north of 100 in the Superdome and around 90 everywhere else. Surely the Patriots will accomplish some patching after their defense has filleted by the Chiefs. But the strides it might require from Week 1 to 2 to harness Brees and Co. are too demanding. RB Adrian Peterson is eager to make a splash to Saints fans after being nearly invisible last week at Minnesota. Two Pats injury absences -- WR Danny Amendola (knee/concussion), which leaves the team with three wideouts, and signal-calling LB Dont’a Hightower -- clinch it for me.

The Patriots have stayed Under in eight of their last 11 road games, but I have a feeling this going to be a game that goes way Over the total. First, the Patriots’ defense was very leaky in Week 1, and I can see Drew Brees doing some things against it to score. Then there's Tom Brady rebounding from a shaky game facing a forgiving Saints’ defense that is part of the reason New Orleans has gone Over the total in 11 of its past 14 home games.

Both teams enter this game looking to answer the same questions. With the loss of Julian Edelman and the probable absence of Danny Amendola this week, the Pats' offense isn’t as scary as it appeared to be in the offseason. Take the points.

This line is rising fast and it's important to get it now in case it goes over a touchdown. No one wants to play the Patriots coming off a loss, with extra time to prepare. The Saints, meanwhile, are on a short week. In my simulations, New England is winning by 12 and covering 62 percent of the time.

At the Superdome, a sizable total often is justified. The past 14 Saints games have gone Over 10 times, with one push. Under his familiar roof, QB Drew Brees is often unstoppable. The sky-high number for the Patriots’ visit also can be attributed to the team’s shoddiest defensive performance in the Bill Belichick era. Never before had the Pats yielded as much as the 42 points and 537 yards that Kansas City smothered them with. Yet the hooded one will get nearly 1 1/2 weeks to patch up the defense. A repeat performance is inconceivable. New England WR Danny Amendola is in concussion protocol. If he is scratched, QB Tom Brady will be denied another trusty possession receiver. Plus, Brees might be coping without both starting tackles. Go Under.