The Chargers and Broncos have played a lot of low-scoring games in recent years, and Denver's defense tends to show up better at home. The Broncos still need to prove they can move the ball consistently with Trevor Siemian at QB, and I think he'll have a tough time against L.A.'s excellent defense. I think the Chargers come up with a win in a low-scoring game late Monday and wouldn't mind parlaying the Chargers moneyline and the Under in this one.

Both these teams have excellent defenses, but the Broncos lost one of the best defensive coordinators in the league during the offseason and decided to part ways with quality safety T.J. Ward during final cuts. Both teams upgraded their O-lines during the offseason, but the Chargers boast a deeper pass rush with Shane Ray sidelined. The Chargers also easily win the QB matchup, which will make all the difference in this late-night game.

This line is telling me the Chargers have the better team. Last year the Broncos finished 9-7 and the Chargers 5-11. Nothing has really changed other than Trevor Siemian has more experience. The Broncos' defense is still among the league's four best. While Denver is a possible Super Bowl contender, the Chargers in my mind are not even a playoff team. Lay the field goal.

The Chargers' style of play always has been tough for Denver. But while the Chargers have upgraded their talent to match that of the Broncos, their franchise lacks stability. Over the last five years, the Broncos have won all five of their season openers and covered each except for a half-point ATS loss to the Colts in 2014. Grab Denver.

The Chargers are healthy, a different status from darn near start to finish last season. They have covered in five straight openers and gone 11-3-1 ATS in three-plus years of September outings. One more ATS record: 8-2-4 in the latest 14 trips to Denver. (What’s with all the pushes?) Wade Phillips, coordinator of the twice-defending top-ranked NFL defense, fled for the other L.A. franchise, so a backslide is possible. With the unintimidating Trevor Siemian at QB, the Broncos have no business yielding more than a field goal to an above-average foe.

One of the biggest takeaways from the preseason was the stellar play of Philip Rivers and the Chargers' offense. Denver still has a ton of questions on offense and I don’t see how the Broncos cover here with spotty QB play. Take the Chargers to cover and possibly win outright.

If this matchup were taking place at the end of last season, the total might be in the high 30s. The Chargers closed out the schedule 4-1-1 in Unders as injuries swept through the offense. The Broncos finished 4-1 below the total while averaging a dozen points per game in their last six losses. It’s a new calendar. San Diego has regained its health, even if rookie WR Mike Williams’ debut will be delayed. Denver’s Trevor Siemian is refreshed after hitting the wall that first-year QB starters often encounter. The Chargers' offense is top-shelf now, and Denver's will be run by Mike McCoy, who worked wonders there before. A year ago, the teams collaborated for 46 points in the Mile High City. Go Over.