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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The Giants' defense is outstanding, featuring top talent like Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins and Jason Pierre-Paul. I have their defense as the NFL's fourth-best. While the Cowboys sport the league's second-best offense, that's with a 100 percent Ezekiel Elliott. I think his time away hurts the continuity of Dallas' offense. Go Under.
From the moment the league schedule was released, we have been reminded that the Giants swept Dallas last season. This factoid is less significant from a betting standpoint than the points scored in those games: 39 and 17. And with New York WR Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) being a game-time decision, with prospects of him playing growing ever dim, its offense could be crippled. The impact of Ezekiel Elliott’s clearance to play is overstated because Dallas’ veteran backup RBs still would have produced behind the league’s most formidable line.
As I mentioned in my pick on the total, the Giants controlled the pace of both games against Dallas last year. They've won the last three meetings outright and covered the past five. Even if Ezekiel Elliott plays, I like the Giants defense to be as stout as it was last year, and to be the story of this matchup once again. Take the points.
In 2015, the Giants defense allowed 421 ypg and 28 ppg. In 2016, in Ben McAdoo's first season as head coach, the Giants were able make significant strides defensively, allowing 344 ypg and 19 ppg, and it's why they also made the playoffs for the first time since 2011. While producing wins, they also produced Unders in 12 of their 16 regular-season games, including both wins against the Cowboys. I like what I've seen out of the Giants defense in training camp and I expect them to be similar to last season. What's puzzling is that this total is showing the same number as last year's two games when we already know a little more about them. We've also got the possibility of Ezekiel Elliott missing the game and his skills are worth 1.5 points. I'm looking at the Giants to control the tempo like last season and keep this total Under again.
The Giants have covered five straight against the Cowboys, not to mention six of their past eight visits to Arlington, Tex. A possible suspension looms over Ezekiel Elliott. Either way, I'll take the points in a matchup that's usually tight. Seven of the past nine meetings have been decided by five or fewer points. Locking this pick in early because if this line moves, it's only going one way.