I respect the Steelers' immense offensive talent and their improved pass rush, but I think the Patriots are about to play their "A" game, one we didn't see last week. Pittsburgh won't be able to settle for field goals like they did in K.C. Back New England.

The Patriots had a bad showing last week and still took care of the Texans in an 18-point victory. The Steelers obviously present a tougher test, but the Pats just don’t have two bad games in a row. I think their defense carries the day, as Bill Belichick looks to erase Le’Veon Bell as much as possible. That’ll put the pressure on Big Ben to carry his team to a win, and I don’t see Road Roethlisberger getting it done. The New England defense causes a big turnover early, and the Steelers are unable to erase a second-half deficit. Patriots take it 30-13.

I don’t really want anything do with the NFC title game’s astronomical total (I think it creeps Over, but just barely), but here I see plenty of value in taking the Under. Ben Roethlisberger’s numbers on the road are mediocre, and the Patriots should do what they can to slow down Le’Veon Bell, make sure their safeties maintain their responsibilities to take away the deep threat, and then force Big Ben to engineer long drives using short-to-medium gains. I can’t see them reaching the end zone often, and scoring 20 to me would be a stretch. The Pats will go to ball control in the second half and use FGs to extend their lead, keeping us Under the total.

In the semifinal round, my mantra: Pick which team you believe will win and ignore the point spread. Patriots backers can take comfort in knowing that four of their five AFC title-game wins with Tom Brady at QB have come by 10, nine, 15 and 38 points. For New England, straight-up victory tends to mean ATS victory as well. While the Steelers own the best RB-WR tandem in the league and a rugged defense, QB Ben Roethlisberger is showing his age. And Brady is 4-0 outright at home versus Pittsburgh, with 15 TDs and zero interceptions.

I refuse to play the 'how hurt is Big Ben' game this week. He'll play, and he'll thrive. It'll come down to which defense can you trust. The Steelers are a young group that's playing very good team defense at the most important time of the year.

You've got two explosive offenses in this game, but also two underrated defenses. My projections show 45 total points scored, giving us a nice cushion below this total. Go Under.