Tom Brady's weapons are as healthy as they've been in a while, with the exception of Gronk, and I see a big game from the New England defense against Brock Osweiler. The Pats have destroyed their last two opponents by a combined 76-14. They'll look to make a statement here. Lay the lumber.

This spread seems unreal for a playoff game, but it's certainly warranted. Brock Osweiler has been abysmal for the Texans, last week's win notwithstanding, and Bill Belichick and Tom Brady should be able to rack up yards and points after a week off with extra time to prepare for this game. The Texans were a bottom-five team in the regular season, per DVOA, while New England is No. 1 by far in weighted DVOA (which weighs recent games more heavily). The Pats outscored the Jets and Dolphins 76-14 in their last two games. If that was the final of this game, would it really shock you?

The Patriots total has gone Under in five of the last seven games, and the Under has cashed 10 times this year. But the first Patriots playoff game of the year tends to be a high-scoring affair, as the totals of those games since the 2009 season have been 47, 49, 55, 69, 65, 66 and 47. Even though the Texans earn "No. 1 defense" status due to their yards-per-game figure, it wouldn't surprise anyone to see the Patriots score 45 points themselves in this game. If not, the Texans should help cover the total in garbage time. Either way, the Over is a strong play in this matchup.