This line finally moved back to my target of +5 or more. The Giants are the better defensive team and that will be the difference tonight at Lambeau. I have the Packers winning with the Giants covering +5.

The first meeting stayed well under this total, and I expect more of the same Sunday. Ben McAdoo knows the Packers' offense inside-out. Go Under.

The Packers appear to have everything going for them during a six game win streak (5-1 ATS), but let's not get too crazy about the achievement that followed a four game losing streak, and the six teams they beat on the streak were all having major issues at the time. The Giants have ironed out all their early-season issues and have won nine of their last 11, and they've done it with basically the same conservative game plan. The Giants' last two Super Bowls were aided by wins at Lambeau Field and they've also covered their last nine road playoff games. I took the points here.

QB Aaron Rodgers is on fire. I get it. But the Giants’ defense is awesome, with a No. 2 ranking in rush defense. The Packers’ ground game is subpar, and A-Rod won’t have one of his Hall of Fame games against a D focused on him -- with temperatures in the low teens. New York’s Eli Manning has been ineffective (one touchdown, three interceptions) in two games played below 20 degrees. The Giants have gone under this total in six straight outings and 13 times this season. Go Under.

The Packers have been on a roll, winning six straight and scoring 30 points or more in each of their last four games. I think that'll continue here at home, as their offensive line is strong enough to keep the Giants' pass rush at bay. The Giants haven't done much on offense over the last month, but Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard should have their way with a severely undermanned Packers secondary. The running game for each of these teams has been a work-in-progress, but that's not going to matter much with the favorable matchups in the passing game.

This is a Strength vs. Strength game, the Packers' passing game against the Giants' secondary. But don't overlook the improvement on the Giants' offensive line, which has helped the running game. Justin Pugh's return has paid big dividends for RB Paul Perkins. Although Green Bay handled the G-Men easily during the regular season, I think we'll see vastly different game Sunday. Take the points.