The total here could wind up lower than any in the regular season -- and for good reason. One QB (Connor Cook, Oakland) is a third-stringer making his first start of the season. The other (Brock Osweiler, Houston) has no business starting and was recently demoted. I will ignore those factors and count on this trend: In the past 12 postseasons, the Over has gone 11-5 when the total came up 38 or lower. Let’s pounce on this tiny total and let the trend be our friend Saturday.

Not only are the Raiders without Derek Carr, they could be without their elite left tackle, Donald Penn. He didn't practice again Thursday due to a knee injury. Jadeveon Clowney dominated the first matchup -- the Mexico City game that Houston should have won -- and he'll do so again Saturday in a more impactful way. Lamar Miller's return to heath will be another big factor in a Houston win.

There are much better ways to spend your hard-earned money than to bet on either of these teams. But if you must make a play, I'd favor taking the moneyline for the home team here. While there aren't many situations in which I'd rather have Brock Osweiler than the other team's quarterback, one is if that quarterback is a rookie making his first start on the road in a playoff game. Laying 3.5 or 4 is a little dicey for me in what should be a low-scoring game, but the Texans shouldn't have trouble prevailing by 1-3 points.

The Raiders will start Connor Cook, and the Texans likely will go with Brock Osweiler. Defense and special teams will decide this game, and I’ll give the edge to the Texans. Lay the points.

Derek Carr is showing just how valuable he is by being out, and I'm not so sure the line is reflecting it as it should. The Texans most likely get Brock Osweiler back under center, which doesn't change their rating. But with Houston's outstanding defense, the Raiders are going to have trouble scoring with third-string QB Connor Cook. Look for an ultra-conservative Texans' gameplan and for the offense and kicker to capitalize on great field position offered by Cook and the Raiders. I'm on the Texans at home.