Let’s be honest. The Seahawks are down by their standards this season. This pick, though, is more about the Lions, whose knack for keeping it close has faded in concert with QB Matthew Stafford’s injured finger. Detroit is winless straight-up and ATS in outdoor road games. Seattle has never lost outright in a postseason game at CenturyLink Field during the Pete Carroll era. With Russell Wilson at QB, the 'Hawks are 28-15-1 ATS at home. Gotta bite the bullet and give the eight.

I feel like the Lions are going to have plenty of trouble scoring points in this game. Matthew Stafford has clearly been affected by his finger injury, and now he has to go on the road and try and succeed against one of the league's best defenses outdoors in a playoff environment. The Seahawks have been a bit hit-or-miss on offense, but they've averaged 28.4 points in home games and get to face the 32nd-ranked DVOA defense here. The best play on Saturday could very well be taking both home teams on a two-team moneyline parlay for close to even money.

The Seahawks aren't the same without All-Pro safety Earl Thomas. They gave up 32 points per game to Green Bay, Arizona and San Francisco down the stretch. They also can't run the ball, with Thomas Rawls averaging 1.6 ypc in that same stretch. Make no mistake, the Lions don't inspire a lot of confidence. They really miss Theo Riddick. But with this spread over a touchdown, I'll look for Golden Tate to make a few big plays against his old team and for Detroit to lose by a TD or less.

This number is inflated and it should be, based on no Theo Riddick (wrist) for the Lions. That's a big deal. Without Riddick, Matt Stafford hasn't had the bailout move that did so well for him and has been regularly stranded on third-down situations. They blew the NFC North without Riddick, losing their last three games. Detroit hasn't covered the spread in its last four -- all without Riddick. The Seahawks failed to cover their last two but they're at home and the play on them is more about Detroit's slide. Lay it.

Detroit is talented enough offensively to threaten Seattle and the Lions match up very well defensively too. What Seattle has to be worried about is the Lions' ability to attack vertically down the field. The saving grace for the Seahawks will be their ability to get after Matthew Stafford. This will be an entertaining game, and a close one. Grab the points.